Market Outlook #262 (third April 2024)
Hi there and welcome to the 262nd instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s publish, I might be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Polygon, Optimism, Casper and Realio.
As ever, you probably have any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know by way of e mail or within the feedback.
Bitcoin:
Month-to-month:
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by wanting on the month-to-month chart for BTC/USD, we will see that final month was the very best ever shut for Bitcoin on essentially the most quantity in over a 12 months, closing firmly by $69k into $71.3k. That is – as I’m certain you might be conscious – not bearish. this timeframe, so long as we maintain above $58kish in April, this nonetheless seems to be tremendous bullish for the approaching quarter. If April closes beneath $58k, we’ve a bit extra of a difficulty, because it seems to be extra like a false breakout than an actual one, however with this quantity profile and construction I’m leaning closely in direction of the notion that each one April dips are for getting. Wanting forward, so long as we do maintain above $58k, I feel we see $100k traded by Q3, and we will see why within the weekly chart…
Wanting on the weekly, the very first thing to level out is that regardless of 4 weeks of consolidation round these all-time highs the parabolic advance stays intact, and we may proceed to consolidate for a few weeks but with out breaking it. Weekly momentum indicators proceed to level to increased costs with no exhaustion seen but, and on the worst – so long as the parabola holds – I feel we see a pointy wick beneath $61k into $59k after which bounce increased quickly from there. The extra bullish situation right here is the formation of a higher-low this week above $61k that results in one other stab at all-time highs subsequent week, resulting in an eventual breakout earlier than Could and subsequent worth discovery, with the rallies getting sharper from there in direction of $100k by July.
In some unspecified time in the future that parabola will break: it would both be quickly, and we’ll see an extended consolidation by summer time earlier than reversal doubtless late in Q3 going into the election cycle; or in a couple of months time, after which I don’t understand how the cycle would play out from a parabolic break of say $140k. If we have a look at the every day, we will see that some kind of ascending triangle is at present forming into these all-time highs and above the curve of the parabola. If we shut the every day beneath that, that may be an early indicator of misplaced momentum and due to this fact the start of a bigger transfer down, doubtless in direction of that $49-53k vary in a number of weeks time. If, nonetheless, we proceed to type higher-lows right here into mid-April I feel we push by $74k and start the following leg. The liquidation cascade situation could be a pointy wick by $61k that results in a push into $59k – doubtless within the subsequent week or so – earlier than a tough v-reversal leaving late shorts trapped and liquidated longs chasing worth increased. Let’s see how this week closes out…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
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Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we will see that the pair is consolidating beneath $3580 resistance, closing marginally above it final week however on low quantity in a good vary – and early this week promoting off from that open again in direction of the prior low at $3057. For now, the pair is holding above that low, however I feel its trajectory depends upon BTC/USD over the following week or two. If we drop into the every day for readability, we will see how a lower-high has shaped beneath $3726, however worth is at present discovering help and $3222 – the early March low. If this help holds for the remainder of the week, I can see continuation increased by $3726 to invalidate the decrease excessive subsequent week. Now, if we shut beneath $3222, I might count on $3057 to be taken out. What occurs afterwards is reaction-dependent: if we sweep $3057 and shut again above it, then pushing sharply again above $3222, I feel we mark a backside and proceed increased from there; if as a substitute we shut beneath $3057 and that degree acts as resistance, the pair is prone to return to $2735 earlier than a backside is discovered. I’m at present leaning in direction of one of many first two eventualities, as until $59k falls for BTC/USD, I can’t see us getting $2735 for ETH.
Turning to ETH/BTC, this pair seems to be notably woeful and anaemic after the previous week or two of grinding decrease, and we are actually pushing beneath the final line of defence at 0.051. If we shut beneath this degree, I feel it’s doubtless we take out the yearly low at 0.0478 into 0.0461. If we shut the week above 0.051 like we’ve the final couple of weeks, that may present some power from bulls and we may be marking out a really uneven native backside. It’s arduous to get enthusiastic about ETH when the BTC pair is wanting like this, however I’m certain we’ll get some sense of course within the subsequent couple of weeks…
Cardano:
ADA/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ADA/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
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Ideas: Starting with ADA/USD, on the weekly we will see that worth has rallied again to the 200wMA, discovering resistance at $0.75 for 3 weeks earlier than rejecting and shifting decrease, now at marginally again beneath resistance at $0.60, which was appearing as help. We’ve momentum exhaustion right here as properly, supporting the concept Cardano is an underperformer right here, and I might count on worth to drift again in direction of $0.47 if we shut beneath $0.60 this week. Dropping into the every day, we will see how $0.68 acted as reclaimed resistance after breaking again beneath it, and now construction is firmly bearish, with no signal of exhaustion simply but. If reject off of $0.60 as reclaimed resistance this week, I’m taking a look at a return to that 200dMA and prior resistance turned help at $0.47-0.49. If bulls someway flip up right here, I feel that is solely an extended again above $0.68, trying to purchase that as resistance turned help and commerce it increased into $0.90.
Turning to ADA/BTC, we will see that worth rejected at 1588 satoshis and has been trending decrease all 12 months, retracing the complete rally from the October 2023 backside again into help right here at 858,. Now that is far more supportive for some reduction for Cardano, given the response off this degree late final 12 months, but when we shut the weekly beneath 858 that may be disastrous, with one other 20% drop into the following help at 700 satoshis. If we do discover help right here once more, which will present confluence if the Greenback pair can get again above that $0.68 degree for continuation increased.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
MATIC/BTC
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Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MATIC/USD, we will see from the weekly that worth is sat on trendline help from the October 2023 backside and hovering above the 200wMA, having pushed beneath reclaimed help at $0.92 this week. MATIC bulls wish to see this space maintain agency and worth to push again above $0.92 for the weekly shut, which is able to then look extra like a sweep of native lows into main help and certain a higher-low type continuation in direction of $1.31 and past. If, nonetheless, $0.92 begins to behave as resistance subsequent week, and we break beneath that trendline, I might count on to see one other close to 20% of draw back in direction of $0.74 as the following main help. If we drop into the every day, we see comparable construction to ADA/USD with no indicators of pattern exhaustion simply but, opening up the probability of that bigger transfer decrease into $0.74, with the 200dMA and 360dMA hovering above that. If we will catch a bid right here and push again above $1, that’s a pleasant lengthy for the $1.31 retest, with a view to hedge there and reopen on acceptance above that degree.
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we will see simply how poorly this has carried out, breaking beneath multi-year help and turning it into resistance, then grinding decrease for weeks, now sat in no man’s land at 1350 satoshis. There is no such thing as a main help beneath this all the best way into 948. There are additionally no indicators but of pattern exhaustion right here. If something, you doubtless wish to maintain off any spot purchases till 1720 satoshis is reclaimed as help or worth trades into that 948 degree. Not engaging in any respect right here.
Optimism:
OP/USD
Every day:
OP/BTC
Every day:
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Ideas: Focusing right here on OP/USD, given the comparatively brief price-history of Optimism, we will see that worth shaped an all-time excessive in March round $4.92, from which level it has retraced, breaking again beneath prior highs turned resistance at $4.24 after which pushing into help at $3, above which it at present sits. Construction is bearish right here, as is momentum, however we’ve the beginnings of some exhaustion on the Superior Oscillator. Nonetheless, I do assume this continues to puke in direction of the 200dMA, doubtless sweeping the swing-low into $2.56 earlier than marking out a backside. So long as we don’t shut beneath $2.33, I feel this nonetheless simply seems to be like a broad vary above historic resistance turned help; shut beneath that and this seems to be far more bearish. If we will mark out a backside above $2.56, I’m in search of $5.80 as the following goal for my spot holdings.
Casper:
CSPR/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
CSPR/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
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Ideas: If we start by taking a look at CSPR/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair has been in a broad vary for nearly two years now, with newer worth motion confined between help at $0.031 and help turned resistance at $0.055. We’re again on the backside of that shallower vary throughout the broader vary and that is largely simply chop at current. Casper was born within the bear market and has solely identified a downtrend and an extended flat consolidation, so it’s in all probability value shopping for partials near vary help and including to your place on a clear weekly shut by $0.054, you probably have basic conviction on this mission. Above $0.054, I feel the primary bull cycle is prone to start, and I wouldn’t expect something lower than $0.226 as a primary goal, however doubtless costs past $0.36 given it has by no means skilled a bull cycle.
Turning to CSPR/BTC, in contrast to the Greenback pair that is nonetheless in its long-term downtrend since inception, with current worth motion breaking beneath prior all-time lows at 83 satoshis and pushing into 63, earlier than turning that into resistance and now sitting at 52 satoshis. We’ve the makings of minor pattern exhaustion right here however we’re very a lot in bearish worth discovery. I might be in search of construction and momentum to point out us clear indicators of bullishness earlier than stepping in to be sincere. If we drop into the every day, this might take the type of a trendline breakout adopted by a reclaim of 63 satoshis as help, which might make for a pleasant entry. If we break beneath 52, there isn’t any realizing the place this stops.
Realio:
RIO/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
RIO/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
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Ideas: Starting with RIO/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair has been in a powerful uptrend since November 2022, persevering with to carry to a parabolic advance, with final week seeing the pair push by the ultimate resistance degree at $2.74 on enormous quantity into $5.61, however finally reject and shut again inside $2.73. Momentum indicators don’t present indicators on exhaustion right here and moderately I count on we see a few weeks of consolidation right here earlier than the breakout is validated and worth continues to run increased in direction of the all-time highs at $10.72 within the subsequent couple of months. So long as the parabola holds, there isn’t any have to count on something apart from what we’ve already been seeing. If we break the parabola, it’s doubtless we get a deeper correction in direction of $0.99 earlier than any continuation.
Turning to RIO/BTC, we will see that weekly construction is firmly bullish and final week noticed worth shut by a cluster of resistance on nice quantity and with new highs on momentum indicators, discovering resistance round 5772 satoshis and now consolidating between there and reclaimed help at 1836. As talked about above, I might count on continued consolidation right here earlier than a weekly shut by 5772, which would be the catalyst for the steepest a part of the parabola, with no resistance between there and all-time highs. On this chart, that’s marked out as 96k satoshis, however I feel this can be a misprint – both approach, above 6k satoshis, I feel you’re successfully in worth discovery mode for the BTC pair. So long as this holds above 1155 construction can also be nonetheless bullish, so there’s quite a lot of draw back we may see earlier than any break in construction.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions beneath, or e mail me instantly at [email protected].