Dividend Aristocrats In Focus: AbbVie

Up to date on April twenty second, 2024 by Bob Ciura

At Certain Dividend, we imagine long-term buyers ought to concentrate on the highest-quality dividend development shares. Broadly talking, these are firms with lengthy histories of elevating their dividends, and the aggressive benefits and development potential to gas continued dividend development within the years forward.

Due to this fact, we are inclined to steer buyers towards the Dividend Aristocrats, a gaggle of 68 firms within the S&P 500 Index, with 25+ consecutive years of dividend will increase. Now we have compiled a whole checklist of all Dividend Aristocrats, together with related monetary metrics similar to dividend yields and price-to-earnings ratios.

You may obtain your free checklist of all of the Dividend Aristocrats by clicking on the hyperlink beneath:

Disclaimer: Certain Dividend will not be affiliated with S&P World in any method. S&P World owns and maintains The Dividend Aristocrats Index. The knowledge on this article and downloadable spreadsheet is predicated on Certain Dividend’s personal overview, abstract, and evaluation of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and different sources, and is supposed to assist particular person buyers higher perceive this ETF and the index upon which it’s based mostly. Not one of the data on this article or spreadsheet is official information from S&P World. Seek the advice of S&P World for official data.

We overview every of the 68 Dividend Aristocrats yearly. The following inventory to be reviewed on this 12 months’s version is AbbVie (ABBV).

AbbVie is coming off a multi-year interval of wonderful development, because of the large success of its flagship product Humira. There are questions concerning the corporate’s future development because of rising competitors for Humira within the U.S. and Europe, however the firm has a plan to proceed its development in the long term.

This text will focus on AbbVie’s enterprise mannequin, development potential, and valuation.

Enterprise Overview

AbbVie is a world pharmaceutical big. It has a $300 billion market capitalization, that means it’s a mega-cap inventory.

AbbVie started buying and selling as an impartial firm in 2013, after it was spun off from fellow pharmaceutical Dividend Aristocrat, Abbott Laboratories (ABT).

AbbVie has generated robust development because the spin-off. Because of success with medicine similar to Humira, the corporate grew income and adjusted EPS by 14% and 18%, respectively, from 2013 to 2022.

Further Useful resource: Inventory Spin-Off Calendar from Inventory Spin-Off Investing.

AbbVie is a pharmaceutical merchandise firm that’s centered on a few key therapy areas, together with immunology, oncology, and neurological well being

Supply: Investor Presentation

Because of the expansion it skilled because it was spun off, AbbVie now generates annual income of round $58 billion.

AbbVie’s most vital product is Humira. Humira is an immunology drug that’s used for the therapy of rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn’s illness, and a number of other extra indications, and that has been the top-selling drug on the earth for a few years.

The problem for AbbVie is that Humira is now going through biosimilar competitors in Europe and the US (since January 2023).

AbbVie reported its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings outcomes on February 2nd. Income got here to $14.3 billion for the quarter, which was 5% lower than the identical quarter of the earlier 12 months.

Income was positively impacted by development from a few of its newer medicine, together with Skyrizi and Rinvoq, whereas Humira gross sales declined because of patent expiration.

AbbVie earned $2.79 per share in the course of the fourth quarter, down 22% year-over-year. The corporate expects to earn $11.05 – $11.25 on a per-share foundation for 2024. Earnings per share will probably be comparatively flat in comparison with 2023.

Progress Prospects

The most important danger for international pharmaceutical producers is patent loss. When a specific drug loses its patent, the market is often flooded with competitors, particularly for the world’s top-selling merchandise.

For AbbVie, its largest danger is the competitors about to hit its flagship drug Humira, a multi-purpose drug that’s used to deal with rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, Crohn’s illness, ulcerative colitis, and extra.

Humira at one level generated over half of AbbVie’s annual gross sales. Lack of patent exclusivity within the US in early 2023 is a big overhang.

Going ahead, AbbVie expects to return to development from its expanded portfolio. The corporate ready for the lack of patent exclusivity on Humira, by investing closely in new merchandise in addition to acquisitions to spice up its development.

For instance, Rinvoq and Skyrizi are two extra merchandise that symbolize long-term development catalysts.

Supply: Investor Presentation

AbbVie’s $63 billion acquisition of Allergan additionally stays a supply of future enterprise and earnings development.

Allergan’s flagship product is Botox, which diversifies AbbVie’s portfolio with publicity to international aesthetics and neurological indications. Each of those markets proceed to expertise development, thereby permitting AbbVie to profit from rising spending in these areas.

Total, we anticipate 3% annual EPS development from AbbVie over the subsequent 5 years.

Aggressive Benefits & Recession Efficiency

A very powerful aggressive benefit for AbbVie, and every other pharmaceutical firm, is its patent portfolio. Pharmaceutical giants have to spend closely to innovate new medicine and therapies when considered one of their blockbusters loses patent safety.

AbbVie, like lots of its friends, spends billions on R&D yearly. Because of that heavy spending on new therapies, AbbVie is well-positioned in development markets similar to oncology and immunology.

The corporate has a lot of new merchandise in varied phases of improvement.

Supply: Investor Presentation

AbbVie was not a stand-alone firm over the last monetary disaster, so there isn’t any recession monitor report, however since sick folks require therapy whether or not the economic system is increasing or contracting, it’s extremely doubtless that AbbVie would proceed to carry out effectively throughout a recession.

The COVID pandemic has not impacted AbbVie negatively, as the corporate hit new report income in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Even when AbbVie’s earnings have been to say no barely in a recession, the dividend ought to stay safe. AbbVie’s dividend payout ratio is roughly 56% anticipated for 2024.

Valuation & Anticipated Returns

AbbVie is anticipated to generate adjusted EPS of $11.15 for 2024, on the midpoint of steerage. At this EPS stage, the inventory is presently buying and selling for a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0. AbbVie is valued significantly beneath the S&P 500 Index.

Our truthful worth estimate for AbbVie is a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0, because of rising leverage from the Allergan acquisition and the Humira patent exclusivity that expired. These are continued overhangs on the corporate’s earnings development potential.

In consequence, we view AbbVie as barely overvalued. A compressing P/E a number of may lower shareholder returns by roughly 4.4% per 12 months over the subsequent 5 years.

As well as, we anticipate annual earnings development of three% by way of the subsequent 5 years. Lastly, the inventory has a present dividend yield of three.7%.

In whole, we anticipate annual returns of round 2.3% per 12 months over the subsequent 5 years, making AbbVie inventory a promote.

Remaining Ideas

AbbVie is a high-quality enterprise, with a robust pharmaceutical pipeline and long-term development potential. It’s also a shareholder-friendly firm that returns extra money movement to buyers.

The near-term outlook is murky, as AbbVie faces a big problem in changing misplaced Humira gross sales from dropping patent exclusivity.

Whereas the corporate has ready for this with heavy R&D investments, earnings-per-share development has stalled prior to now few years.

With anticipated returns beneath 3% per 12 months going ahead, even together with the dividend yield, AbbVie inventory is rated a promote proper now.

If you’re concerned about discovering high-quality dividend development shares appropriate for long-term funding, the next Certain Dividend databases will probably be helpful:

The most important home inventory market indices are one other stable useful resource for locating funding concepts. Certain Dividend compiles the next inventory market databases and updates them month-to-month: