Market Outlook #250 (18th December 2023)
Hi there, and welcome to the 250th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s submit, I will probably be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Casper Community, TriasLab, Morpheus Community and Cellframe. I can even be offering a year-end replace to Altcoin Market Cap.
That is the final Outlook for 2023. Have a terrific Christmas and a Glad New Yr and I’ll see you in 2024.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $40,971
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, from the weekly timeframe we are able to see that worth spent final week contained in the vary of the earlier week, printing an inside week. Given this formation, the very first thing to contemplate is the potential of inside week failure, which might type if we take out both final week’s low or its excessive after which shut again inside that weekly vary. Provided that we offered off from final week’s open into the shut again beneath $42k, and thus our proximity to the weekly vary low (and the broader market outlook), I lean in the direction of the probability of us taking out the weekly low at $40.3k earlier than closing again above it. In that situation, we’d anticipate final week’s excessive to get taken out out and worth to probably proceed to squeeze past $45k, with $48.2k as main resistance past that. If, nonetheless, worth closes the week beneath $40.3k, this situation is invalidated and I’d anticipate a deeper pullback from there in the direction of $38k as untested prior resistance.
Dropping into the each day, we are able to see that each day construction is now bearish, given the break and shut beneath the $43k swing-low and subsequent lower-high; nonetheless, that wasn’t a lot of a swing level, so while that is technically bearish construction I’m not notably satisfied by it as of but. If we had been to now shut the each day via $40k, that seems to be way more convincing for short-term bearishness, with first targets of a trendline retest and the $38k prior resistance, with $33k as the key degree beneath that if we’re to take out all of these untapped lows alongside the trendline earlier than bottoming out. Nonetheless, if we are able to proceed to carry right here above $40k (or deviate this low and shut again above it), I’d search for a push again above $43k earlier than favouring additional upside; between these ranges I don’t have a lot of a bias. Shut again above $43k and I do assume we proceed to push increased into $48k…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $2132 (0.05203 BTC)
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we are able to see that worth retraced all the beneficial properties of the prior weekly growth final week, promoting off from the open again into reclaimed help at $2172. Worth depraved beneath the prior weekly low into $2137, which held as help, with the pair closing again above $2172. Truthfully, that is very a lot giving blended alerts: we now have erasure of the earlier week’s beneficial properties following growth past yearly highs, however we now have a sweep of the weekly low into main help too. Mainly, chop continues. What I’m taking a look at right here is the place we are able to proceed to carry above $2172 this week; shut above it after sweeping final week’s low and I feel we now have the makings of a backside earlier than one other run at $2425. If, nonetheless, we shut the week beneath $2137, I feel we’re more likely to see $1850 taken out earlier than a backside is discovered. Wanting on the each day, we are able to see how each day construction seems to be set to show bearish right here if we do break and shut beneath $2137, and if that’s confirmed we are able to anticipate $2036 to be examined later this week, however with way more help down round $1850. Nonetheless, as talked about earlier, sweep this space of prior resistance after which climb again above $2172 later this week and I feel shorts get trapped and we squeeze again in the direction of yearly highs.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we are able to see that worth continues to cut round between help at 0.051 and resistance round 0.055. There’s little else to be added right here given the narrative has been the identical inside this vary for weeks now. Once we break and shut both aspect of the vary, I wouldn’t be fast to fade it.
Casper Community:
CSPR/USD
Each day:
CSPR/BTC
Each day:
Worth: $0.038 (92 satoshis)
Ideas: Provided that each pairs look just about similar right here for CSPR, let’s deal with the Greenback pair.
CSPR/USD, we are able to see that it has been range-bound for 585 days at this level, with a lot of that being spent above $0.025 and beneath $0.055, aside from a quick fakeout past that vary resistance earlier this 12 months. We’ve got bullish construction right here on the each day however have offered off from prior help up close to the prime quality, with worth now set to retest the 200dMA at $0.037 as help. So long as we now maintain above reclaimed help at $0.035 and the 200dMA, forming a higher-low, I’d anticipate to see one other push on the vary resistance from right here up close to $0.055. If it is a venture you have an interest in (reader request, FYI), I’d contemplate this nearly as good an entry as any provided that your invalidation right here could possibly be as tight at $0.031; closing beneath that may invalidate all of this latest construction and we’d probably return in the direction of the underside of the vary from there. Wanting forward, the disbelief part is apparent – shut above $0.073 and I feel this begins its bull cycle, with $0.22 as main resistance past that.
TriasLab:
TRIAS/USD
Each day:
TRIAS/BTC
Each day:
Worth: $5.57 (13,579 satoshis)
Ideas: Once more, given how comparable these pairs look right here, let’s deal with the Greenback pair, because the construction can also be a bit of cleaner.
TRIAS/USD, we are able to see that worth was in an extended interval of growth off the underside earlier than spending a lot of 2023 in consolidation beneath $4.15, faking out above that degree as soon as. This lengthy consolidation vary led to cost winding tighter with the 360dMA appearing as help and worth then reclaiming the 200dMA as help in October. Since, the pair has rallied in the direction of $4.15, consolidated between the 200dMA and that degree and most lately damaged out sharply past that resistance, breaking contemporary yearly highs via $5. Given this market construction, I’d completely not be fading this, as an alternative contemplating this probably the start of the following main leg increased for TRIAS. If we are able to now maintain above $4.15, I’d anticipate $6.40 to present manner and worth to make its manner in the direction of trendline resistance and reclaimed resistance up close to $12 earlier than the following native prime varieties.
Morpheus Community:
MNW/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
MNW/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $1.08 (2659 satoshis)
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MNW/USD on the weekly, we are able to see that worth continues to be capped by trendline resistance from the all-time highs, having now rejected beneath the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at prior help ~$1.46. We’re at present discovering help above $0.94, as has been the case since late final 12 months, however to be trustworthy this isn’t a very engaging long-term chart at current. We’ve got worth discovering help above the 200wMA in Nov final 12 months, then rallying to contemporary yearly highs into $2.45, confirming a weekly uptrend, however then rejecting, erasing the beneficial properties again into the 200wMA after which rallying way more weakly off that very same help into the trendline. If that $0.94 help goes, this pair returns to bearish construction on the weekly, in order that’s at present your most essential degree. Till it will get a weekly shut via that trendline and again above $1.50, I wouldn’t have an interest on this to be trustworthy – a lot better alternatives out there.
MNW/BTC, we are able to see that the pair could be very a lot nonetheless in a bear cycle at current, with contemporary lows on the latest break and shut beneath 3264 satoshis. Worth is now sat in no man’s land, with main help beneath close to 1400 satoshis, and resistance overhead at that 3264 degree. There’s additionally no signal simply but of pattern exhaustion on the weekly timeframe. I really feel like given how lately this rallied into all-time highs (Nov 2022), will probably be some time but earlier than this one totally bottoms out; while most of its worth capitulation seems to have occurred, we might have to see a interval of flat consolidation earlier than one other cycle can start for MNW.
Cellframe:
CELL/USD
Each day:
CELL/BTC
Each day:
Worth: $0.19 (475 satoshis)
Ideas: Once more, very similar to a few different tokens on this submit, CELL’s pairs look very comparable right here and I’m specializing in the Greenback pair, as that can also be what I’m basing my long-term place on.
So, taking a look at CELL/USD, we are able to see that worth has retraced following the push above $0.24 into $0.29, returning to reclaimed help above $0.185 and the 200dMA. We stay capped by the long-term trendline resistance, however following the multi-year downtrend we now have been consolidating above all-time lows and beneath $0.37 since mid-2022. I’m very a lot nonetheless in my spot place right here and if I used to be not totally allotted I’d be shopping for some inside this vary. Invalidation could be contemporary all-time lows, the place I’d minimize and watch for a reclaim or a brand new vary formation. However given the broader market situations I feel we usually tend to proceed chopping round right here after which begin reversing sharply when ETH begins outperforming. Above $0.37 the primary bull cycle begins…
Altcoin Market Cap:
ALT/USD
Weekly:
ALT/BTC
Weekly:
Market Cap: $441.2bn
Ideas: Starting with ALT/USD, we are able to see that the altcoin market has emerged lastly after over 500 days of being range-bound, lately rallying again via the 200wMA, consolidating above it as help after which pushing via multi-year resistance at $413bn. We’ve got pushed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market right here at $480bn and rejected, now consolidating throughout the prior weekly vary. I’d anticipate to see additional consolidation right here after the multi-week rally, however there may be nothing bearish about this on the upper timeframes. So long as we are able to now maintain above that $400bn space, I’d anticipate the following squeeze to open up a much wider vary, the place issues will get very fascinating: above $480bn, there isn’t any resistance for alts again into the 38.2% fib and prior help close to $590bn – over 25% increased from right here. That’s the place I’d anticipate extra resistance to be discovered for alts and maybe a broader market correction. Disbelief is changing into hope.
ALT/BTC, we are able to see that regardless of some beneficial properties in Greenback values of alts – and big beneficial properties on-chain in non-ETH ecosystems – we now have largely been trending decrease towards BTC for over a 12 months. Most lately, alts depraved beneath help at 10.5mn into 9.6mn and bounced, with pattern exhaustion now showing on this timeframe. We additionally noticed the market shut above trendline resistance, marginally – that is all indicative of a interval of altcoin outperformance being imminent, which is confluent with the Greenback valuation of the altcoin market. If we are able to reclaim 11.4mn as help right here, I feel that would be the catalyst for alts outperforming BTC into the 200wMA and prior multi-year vary help up close to 13.3mn BTC.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook – and the ultimate certainly one of 2023!
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions beneath, or e-mail me instantly at [email protected].
