Market Outlook #248 (third December 2023)
Hiya, and welcome to the 248th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s put up, I might be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Oasis Community, Amp and Unibot.
As ever, if in case you have any requests for subsequent week, ship them throughout.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $39,449
Market Cap: $771.620bn
Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we will see that value is about to shut the week at recent yearly highs, in addition to highs of the week, on comparable quantity to the prior three weeks, having rallied off the open at $37.4k into assist turned resistance right here at $39.6k. This continues to look promising for greater costs, to be sincere – momentum nonetheless seems robust and we’ve simply closed by multi-week resistance. Taking a look at subsequent week, I’d count on this squeeze to proceed into $42k, the place there’s prone to be far more resistance given the confluence. If we do see value push up into that stage, I might be seeking to hedge some spot publicity and look to take away the hedge after we settle for above that stage. For draw back danger, any wick up above $39.6k in direction of $42k and subsequent shut again inside $39.6k would start to seem like an area prime to me, from which level we will begin searching for shorts probably again so far as $33k to filter all of those current untapped lows. That is clearly assuming we do get that prime formation within the subsequent week or two under $42k. Invalidation on any brief publicity is clearly acceptance above $42k, however till we seem like a prime has shaped I’d not rush to fade the primary weekly shut by multi-week consolidation.
Turning to the day by day, we will see how momentum had reset and is now curling greater once more as value has damaged by resistance at $38k and turned it into assist on this timeframe, which is tremendous promising for December price-action, in my opinion. If we will maintain above $38k early subsequent week, I’d count on value to simply maintain pushing up with no actual resistance between $39.6k and $42k. If, nevertheless, we deviate above $39.6k early subsequent week after which break and shut again inside $38k, that might seem like the $42k stage is getting front-run and I’d develop into much more cautious about lengthy publicity. Not a lot else so as to add right here while construction seems like this…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $2,163 (0.0548 BTC)
Market Cap: $260.285bn
Ideas: If we start by ETH/USD, on the weekly we will see that value rallied off resistance turned assist at $2037 – a stage which value had beforehand been chopping round for weeks. From the weekly open, value discovered assist at that stage and has rallied into new yearly highs at $2190, set to shut the week proper across the prior yearly highs at $2170. This seems very very similar to the start of a breakout from this long-term resistance stage for ETH, significantly after we think about how $2037 additionally acted as very robust resistance in August 2022 and July 2023, with value solely deviating above that after since Could 2022’s capitulation occasion. This robust push off that stage and break of recent yearly highs signifies a brand new vary enlargement, in my opinion, as I’ve been awaiting. If we will flip $2170 into assist subsequent week I feel we see ETH/USD push into $2426 later in December earlier than any additional resistance is discovered. Clearly, if we wick above $2190 subsequent week, making a recent yearly excessive, then reject and shut again inside $2170, that might look a bit of extra bearish and we might think about {that a} deviation has shaped. However till that occurs, this seems prepared for a brand new vary.
Taking a look at ETH/BTC, once more we proceed to consolidated above 0.0533 and under the 200wMA at 0.0557, however value is about to shut proper round that resistance stage as soon as once more. As I discussed final week, while we’re on this tight vary, there’s little to do, however after we see value both shut by 0.0533 and switch that assist into resistance or shut above 0.0557 and switch the 200wMA into assist, then we will have a look at the way to play ETH for the foreseeable future. Within the former situation, naturally we might look to hedge lengthy publicity or open brief publicity, in anticipation of draw back; within the latter, we expect to see the pair rally in direction of multi-year trendline resistance, due to this fact outperforming for a interval. Easy.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $63.45 (0.00161 BTC)
Market Cap: $26.953bn
Ideas: Starting with SOL/USD, we will see from the weekly that value is discovering assist above prior resistance at $53.60 and is discovering resistance at $62, marginally under the place the pair is about to shut this week. This vary has held for 3 weeks, with weekly momentum not but displaying any divergence, and while we proceed to carry above $53.60 I’m inclined to count on greater costs from this vary. If subsequent week see the pair flip this resistance into assist above $64, I feel we see one other leg greater into that vary between $75-82. If, nevertheless, we at any level shut the weekly under $53.60 within the subsequent couple of weeks, I’d count on $48 to be retested under because the final stage of assist earlier than a a lot deeper pullback turns into attainable in direction of $36. Dropping into the day by day, we will see how momentum has reset now throughout this consolidation, and if we will begin pushing by $64 I’d count on momentum to hold this ahead as soon as once more, with $68 as minor resistance earlier than $75 comes into play. The bearish situation right here subsequent week could be a deviation above $68 adopted by rejection and an in depth again under $61; in that situation, I’d search for intraweek shorts in direction of $54, with a view to hedge down there and reopen on acceptance by that stage, with $48 then the last word goal for that brief. Beneath $48, what occurs…
Turning to SOL/BTC, we will see how value is consolidating above prior resistance at 0.00137 and the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. We have now resistance overhead at 0.00162, the place value is at present sat, and any acceptance above this opens up continuation into the 38.2% stage at 0.00208, the place there’s additionally prior assist, in my opinion. So probably 15-20% extra upside from right here if this resistance provides means. If we’re topping out right here, nevertheless, subsequent week ought to see value shut again under 0.00137, making it extra possible we pull-back into that untested stage at 0.00112. If we drop into the day by day, we will see how day by day construction is popping bullish once more after the temporary pullback however there’s resistance proper right here that’s proving troublesome. I feel so long as the pair continues to type these decrease timeframe higher-lows into this resistance we’re prone to see it give means and switch into reclaimed assist; from there, I feel we take out 0.0018 and squeeze into 0.002, the place there might be far more resistance.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $0.811 (2058 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.547bn
Ideas: If we start by MATIC/USD, we will see from the weekly that value has retraced off resistance at $1 into the 200wMA at $0.77 and located assist this previous week, rallying off that stage into $0.82, the place it’s set to shut. Weekly construction is bullish however that $1 space has an enormous quantity of confluence for resistance, and so it’s hardly stunning value didn’t breach it on the primary try following this rally. What bulls needs to see right here is that the pair type a macro higher-low now above the reclaimed assist at $0.62 – even when we drop farther from right here into that stage weekly construction would nonetheless be intact if we type that higher-low in that space. From there, we might count on one other try at a $1 breakout, above which there’s little resistance into $1.30, the place we discover confluence of prior assist, the 38.2% retracement of the bear market and the 78.6% retracement of the 2023 downtrend. Dropping into the day by day, we will see how value is definitely forming some respectable construction right here above the 200dMA and above reclaimed assist at $0.74, with day by day construction having turned bullish on this most up-to-date push greater. If this construction holds subsequent week and one other greater low types, I don’t suppose we see that deeper retracement earlier than one other try on the $1 breakout. Let’s see how the week unfolds…
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we will see that, following weekly construction turning bullish, value rallied by the 200wMA into 2704 satoshis and rejected, closing again under that stage and retracing now into reclaimed assist at 2000 satoshis; a significant historic stage. If we will type a higher-low on this space, construction seems completely effective for continuation greater within the coming weeks. Nevertheless, shut again under 2000 satoshis and this rally feels a lot much less legitimate, with 1800 satoshi assist coming into view for a sweep. Maintain right here and I feel the following leg takes the pair in direction of 3200 satoshis for the hole fill. Turning to the day by day, we will see how value faked out above the 200dMA earlier than rejecting and retraced again inside that long-term worth space between 1900-2100 satoshis, and for now we’re seeing assist maintain right here. If we will now reclaim 2100 as assist, I’d count on to see 2450 retested, with acceptance above that resulting in the following leg greater into 2950-3230.
Oasis Community:
ROSE/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ROSE/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $0.0849 (215 satoshis)
Market Cap: $428.513mn
Ideas: Starting with ROSE/USD, we will see that value continued to rally greater this previous week, pushing past prior resistance at $0.08 into $0.088, with value set to shut the week marginally under that stage. We’re trying on the pair inches away from a breakout past the 2023 highs, with any acceptance subsequent week above $0.088 opening up a brand new vary: above that stage, there’s zero resistance into $0.116 and I’m anticipating that vary to get crammed in swiftly, significantly following a multi-week consolidation under resistance. Clearly, if we deviate above that prime subsequent week and begin breaking down and shutting again under it, the image seems a bit of totally different. For now, this very a lot seems prepared for continuation greater, with $0.18 the first goal past $0.116.
Turning to ROSE/BTC, we will see that value is now above reclaimed assist at 203, with solely prior assist at 219 satoshis performing as resistance earlier than an enormous vary opens up, offering confluence for the Greenback pair. If we will shut the weekly firmly above 220 subsequent week, I’d count on ROSE to push in direction of 280 satoshis in December, with acceptance by that stage opening up the primary main resistance stage at 420 – the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. Dropping into the day by day, we will see how following that multi-week consolidation above the 200dMA, value has flipped vary resistance at 203 into assist and is now holding that stage; shut again inside that and we’re prone to return to 180 for a retest, however above it I feel we proceed rallying into 270-280 the place there’s far more resistance.
Amp:
AMP/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
AMP/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $0.0025 (6 satoshis)
Market Cap: $141.301mn
Ideas: If we start by AMP/USD, we will see that the pair not too long ago shaped an all-time low at $0.0014 and has since rallied again above assist at $0.0018, now consolidating under prior assist turned resistance at $0.003. While that is promising, significantly when momentum indicators, weekly construction remains to be bearish and the pair remains to be very a lot in a downtrend, in the intervening time. If we now see a higher-low type above $0.0018 and value then rally and settle for again above $0.03 – a key historic stage – then we will start thinking about a backside to be in and for additional upside to observe. If that does happen, I’d count on the pair to rally off that $0.003 stage as assist quickly in direction of $0.0055. If we see the pair reject this space, nevertheless, and $0.0018 doesn’t maintain, the downtrend persists and recent all-time lows are inevitable. Dropping briefly into the day by day, we will see that value is consolidating between the 360dMA as resistance and the 200dMA as assist, with the previous having capped the final main rally, so acceptance above $0.003 will even give us acceptance above a key MA, and a sustained reversal turns into a lot greater chance, in my view.
Turning to AMP/BTC, the pair has very a lot performed out a textbook market cycle, with volatility having utterly diminished and value now consolidating in a good vary round all-time lows. If this can be a undertaking you are feeling assured in essentially (this can be a reader request, and due to this fact I can’t touch upon fundamentals right here), this may be precisely the place I’d be seeking to construct a spot place to be sincere, with a view so as to add above 16 satoshis. Trying on the day by day, we’re tightly wound proper under the 200dMA additionally, with the 360dMA looming overhead above 10 satoshis; clear all of this and it turns into very doubtless the cyclical backside has shaped, so for these with much less danger urge for food, awaiting that might be smart.
Unibot:
UNIBOT/USD
Every day:
Value: $62.97 (0.00159 BTC)
Market Cap: $63.399mn
Ideas: Lastly, let’s have a look at a undertaking I’ve not too long ago purchased a spot place in: UNIBOT.
Taking a look at UNIBOT/USD, we will see the pair has solely been buying and selling for a couple of months and value has performed out most of a market cycle at this level, having shaped an all-time excessive at $226 in August and since been trending decrease, capitulating into $27.77 in November however largely spending time in a variety between assist at $43 and resistance at $78. This vary has continued since mid-September and while value tried a breakout a couple of days in the past, this failed and we at the moment are retesting $64 as assist; if this stage fails, I’d count on $51 to be retested as assist, the place these on the sidelines might additionally look to construct a place with a weekly shut under $40 being my invalidation right here. I’m seeking to maintain this for a full cycle, anticipating recent highs by $226. Into 2024 we go…
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions under, or e-mail me immediately at [email protected].
