Bitcoin breaks horizontal resistance on the $32k space
The rally prolonged above $35k
Bulls ought to be nervous as a result of Bitcoin diverges from the US greenback
Bitcoin buyers are thrilled to see the cryptocurrency leaping to a brand new excessive for the yr. Extra exactly, Bitcoin traded above $35k for the primary time in over a yr.
It did so by tripping stops seen within the $32k space. This space supplied resistance for fairly a while, and Bitcoin lastly broke above.
That’s the excellent news for bulls.
The unhealthy information is that in doing so, Bitcoin diverges with the remainder of the fiat currencies. Extra exactly, whereas Bitcoin gained towards the US greenback, the buck rallied towards its friends.
It could or might not be one thing to fret about. But when I have been an investor in Bitcoin (which I’m not), I might fear. Right here is why.
Bitcoin chart by TradingView
Bitcoin and the US greenback have diverged since Q1 2023
The issue for Bitcoin is that the greenback strengthened since Q1 2023 towards its friends. Two examples are the EUR/USD and AUD/USD alternate charges, which peaked within the yr’s first quarter.
EUR/USD, as an illustration, peaked at 1.12 and now trades round 1.06. AUD/USD erased virtually all its positive aspects from the lows in October 2022.
Bitcoin is the final one standing towards the greenback. Whereas bulls might say that it is just regular as a result of Bitcoin just isn’t correlated with macro dangers and positioning, I urge to vary.
Since Bitcoin is a part of many institutional portfolios, it does react to macro. Due to this fact, the rally we see right here would probably be reversed except the US greenback energy dissipates. Provided that the greenback begins weakening it is sensible to cheer for a Bitcoin rally.
Till then, warning is required.
