By Sarah Wu and Ben Blanchard
TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd is predicted to report a 30% droop in third-quarter revenue on Thursday however analysts predict sturdy progress subsequent 12 months because the chip trade emerges from its present downturn.
The seemingly decline in revenue additionally displays a powerful efficiency final 12 months, when the corporate was nonetheless driving excessive on pent-up post-pandemic demand.
The world’s largest contract chipmaker is about to report web revenue of T$195.9 billion ($6 billion) for July-September – its second straight quarter of revenue decline, based on an LSEG SmartEstimate drawn from 19 analysts. SmartEstimates give larger weighting to forecasts from analysts who’re extra persistently correct.
Income for the quarter got here in at round $17 billion, based on TSMC figures, down 20% from a 12 months earlier and roughly the center of the corporate’s forecast vary.
World demand for semiconductors started to weaken within the second half of final 12 months, however analysts say inventories at smartphone and laptop makers are working down and restocking demand is predicted to select up.
On condition that, a lot of Thursday’s focus shall be on TSMC’s outlook for the fourth quarter and past.
Morgan Stanley analysts have forecast 10% income progress for the fourth quarter but in addition mentioned in a analysis notice that “steerage might shock to the upside,” citing sturdy demand for high-end chips utilized in synthetic intelligence as one issue.
The AI increase has helped drive up the value of shares in Asia’s Most worthy firm, with TSMC’s Taipei-listed inventory having surged 23% to this point this 12 months.
An LSEG SmartEstimate places TSMC’s 2024 income progress at round 22%.
Sources have mentioned, nonetheless, that TSMC has been nervous about buyer demand and informed its main suppliers to delay the supply of high-end chip-making tools, though they added that suppliers anticipate the delay to be short-term.
Some analysts are additionally reining of their optimism considerably.
Story continues
Fubon Securities expects a gradual begin to subsequent 12 months for TSMC, with 10% progress within the first quarter, predicting order cancellations in direction of the 12 months finish and gentle restocking demand. Particularly, it’s involved that Apple, a significant buyer, might revise down its orders.
“We predict the market consensus continues to be too bullish,” it mentioned in a analysis notice.
The corporate is because of report at 0600 GMT on Thursday.
($1 = 32.2290 Taiwan {dollars})
(Reporting by Sarah Wu and Ben Blanchard; Further reporting by Emily Chan; Enhancing by Edwina Gibbs)
