Warren Buffet, Jeremy Grantham, Ray Dalio, Michael Burry and each evil investment-banker alive all agree inflation + greater rates of interest are the 2 absolute worst issues for shares. Why are you lengthy now, are you able to reply me that? Even Elon removed 100B of Tesla shares on the prime in '21 and in April '22, did you? If you wish to be lengthy shares, purchase Exxon and different oil and gasoline, they’re low-cost and oil will go up.
Banks have stopped lending to business & customers.How do you have got rising firm earnings if cash shrinks? Usually credit score expands by 4-7% Now it CONTRACTS for the primary time in 15 years:
fred.stlouisfed.org/…
fred.stlouisfed.org/…
This can be a blaring air-raid-siren crimson alert.This alone is sufficient to trigger a bear market.If as well as, oil picks up from right here, and charges observe it, we are going to see SPX at 2400.
All non-energy corporations predict decrease revenues this yr because of:
•inflation prices
•greater debt service prices
•shrinking cash provide
Spreads will blow out when the downgrades begins. Excessive Yield corporations are overextended, their debt stage are too excessive and they’re in want of recent fairness. This can solely happen at very low valuations.
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