On Saturday 25 February 2023, voters in Nigeria will head to the polls to elect their subsequent president. Amid rising discontent because of financial hardship and mounting insecurity, residents in Africa’s most populous nation and largest financial system will forged their ballots hoping for a brand new period.
To evaluate public notion within the days main as much as the election, GeoPoll performed a survey utilizing its proprietary SMS and cellular internet analysis platforms. The multi-modal examine used a easy random sampling method from GeoPoll’s and third-party databases to attain a various pattern of 434 voting-age adults from throughout Nigeria.
Given the comparatively small pattern dimension, this examine isn’t meant to foretell the outcomes of the election in any manner, however moderately to supply a directional snapshot of public sentiment because the election approaches.
Findings from the examine are detailed on this put up. To view the total outcomes, filterable by query, state, gender, and age group, scroll all the way down to the Interactive Information Dashboard.
Public Notion and Outlook
With Nigeria going through quite a few challenges, together with a rising value of dwelling, document unemployment, and widespread poverty and insecurity, if follows that just about half of respondents imagine Nigeria goes within the “flawed path.”
Greater than 2 out of three respondents (67%) aged 36 and older imagine the nation goes within the flawed path.
The perceived trajectory of the nation has most feeling “annoyed” with the present state of affairs (58%). This holds true throughout gender and age teams.
Though frustration is the main public sentiment proper now, “hopeful” is second at 38%, illustrating an a minimum of considerably constructive outlook. Additional, when requested straight about the way forward for Nigeria, 69% of respondents say they assume it should get “higher” in comparison with solely 12% that imagine it should worsen.
To ensure that Nigeria to maneuver ahead, nevertheless, respondents say the nation should first take care of widespread “corruption.”
Greater than 1 in 4 respondents view “safety” as the largest problem to peace and stability in Nigeria (28%).
Entry to Election Information and Info
Nigerians are paying shut consideration as they put together to vote in what has change into a extremely contentious election. In our examine, virtually all respondents say they’re following details about the election a minimum of each day (89%).
89% say they’re following details about the election a minimum of each day
Some really feel unhappy with the data they’re getting, nevertheless. Solely 62% say they’re able to entry all of the true and correct details about the election that they want.
Disinformation is clearly a priority. Greater than 9 out of 10 respondents (94%) suspect a minimum of “a bit” of the data they’ve seen or heard concerning the election to be false or inaccurate.
In January 2023, a BBC investigation concluded that political events and supporters in Nigeria have been illegally paying social media influencers to unfold disinformation about their opponents within the upcoming election. Latest stories in The Guardian additionally uncovered disinformation techniques used to govern the leads to Nigeria’s 2015 election.
Voting Intentions
Public curiosity and engagement within the upcoming election is illustrated in the truth that 86% of respondents say they’ve registered to vote.
86% say they’ve a Everlasting Voter’s Card (PVC)
Voter turnout in Nigeria has been on a gradual decline over the previous 20 years. The political events and candidates have been working laborious throughout this election cycle to reverse these traits, however considerations about turnout stay. Regardless of the 86% of respondents that say they’ve registered to vote and the 65% that declare they’re “very seemingly” to vote, the share of individuals that really present up on election day to forged their poll will seemingly fall far under these lofty claims.
Chance to vote will increase with age. These saying they’re “very seemingly” to vote ranges from 59% for respondents aged 18-25 to 70% for respondents aged 36 and older. The imply scores vary from 3.99 to 4.23 on a 5-point scale.
No matter age group, the biggest phase of respondents (71%) says their selection for President can be based mostly on “competence.” “Belief” and a “clear manifesto” are additionally vital concerns for many.
Belief within the Electoral Course of
Belief within the electoral course of is important for decreasing voter apathy and growing turnout. Following credible stories in earlier elections of poll stuffing and paying for votes, the Unbiased Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC) says it has carried out applied sciences and different measures to assist be certain that this election is free from fraud and corruption.
To evaluate voting-age Nigerians’ perceptions of the electoral course of within the week main as much as the election, we introduced them a collection of statements associated to the method and requested whether or not they agree or disagree with every assertion.
Greater than half of respondents (52%) imagine within the electoral course of sufficient to agree or strongly agree that the outcomes of the 2023 elections can be accepted by all Nigerians. Solely 5% strongly disagree.
Nearly half (49%) agree or strongly agree that the elections can be freed from fraud. That share drops to 40% for respondents aged 18-25. Males specific extra belief in a fraud-free election than girls (51% to 43%).
Though virtually 2 in 3 respondents agree or strongly agree that INEC is clear and informs the general public and media about its actions (65%), considerably much less imagine INEC is an impartial establishment and never isn’t influenced by political concerns (50%).
With stories of INEC places of work being attacked within the months main as much as the election, solely 43% of respondents agree or strongly agree that the elections can be freed from violence and intimidation.
Total, greater than 2 in 3 respondents (67%) specific a minimum of “a good quantity” of confidence within the means of INEC to arrange credible elections.
Interactive Information Dashboard
Dive deeper into GeoPoll’s knowledge on the Nigeria elections utilizing the interactive dashboard under. The dashboard offers responses to every query within the survey, filterable by state, age group, and gender.
Conduct Multi-modal Analysis with GeoPoll
GeoPoll is a full-service market and social analysis company that conducts surveys by way of computer-assisted phone interviewing (CATI), computer-assisted private interviewing (CAPI), quick message service (SMS), WhatsApp, and cellular internet/cellular software communications. We additionally conduct on-line and offline qualitative analysis.
This examine was carried out by GeoPoll utilizing our personal cellular analysis platform. The questionnaire was designed by GeoPoll researchers and performed by way of SMS and cellular internet know-how. Information assortment occurred from February 14-18, 2023. The various pattern features a gender composition of 33% females and 67% males, an age breakdown of twenty-two% aged 18-25, 45% aged 26-35, and 33% aged 36 and over, and illustration from each state (ADM1) in Nigeria.
For extra data on the pattern and methodology for this examine or to conduct a analysis examine of your personal utilizing our multi-modal analysis platform, contact us immediately.
