This week, our analysts assessment technical tendencies for the week forward for Micro NASDAQ 100 futures, the 30-year treasury bond futures, micro bitcoin futures and RBOB gasoline futures. In addition they increase on firm earnings and financial stories for the approaching week.
Micro NASDAQ 100 Futures Each day Chart
The Micro NASDAQ 100 futures tried to check the 38% Fibonacci retracement stage (utilizing the December 2021 excessive and the October 2022 low as a downtrend) a second time final week and failed, ending the week buying and selling across the 200-day exponential transferring common. The RSI exhibits bearish divergence: current highs within the RSI are lowering, whereas current highs in worth present sideways motion. The MACD histogram signifies a pattern change to bearish because it dips under the zero line. Ought to this pullback in worth proceed, assist at 12072 (the 23% Fib retracement) and on the 50-day EMA, at the moment at 11985. Targets on the upside (after breaking by means of 12990) might be 13730 (50% retracement stage) and the August excessive of 13933.
30-Yr Treasury Bond Futures Each day Chart
The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond futures is reaching a essential space of assist 124’12, which has already been examined in early January. The current cross under the 50-day exponential transferring common is bearish, with the final seven buying and selling days seeing decrease highs and decrease lows. Bearish divergence is seen within the RSI indicator – with decrease lows on the RSI the place worth has but to make a comparable decrease low. The MACD exhibits bearish occasions as nicely, with the MACD, sign line and histogram all in damaging territory. Ought to the market rally, anticipate some resistance on the 50-day transferring common (at the moment at 128’07). Additional bearish motion might goal 117’15, the low within the October.
Micro Bitcoin Futures Each day Chart
Micro Bitcoin futures proceed to rally with the cross above the 200-day exponential transferring common. The MACD is poised for a cross above its sign line, which might be a bullish indication. The RSI is troubling although – whereas bitcoin is making greater swing highs, the RSI is seeing decrease swing highs, which might point out a weakening bull pattern. A continuation of the bull pattern might expertise resistance at 27550 (the 23% Fibonacci retracement from the excessive in November 2021 to the low a 12 months later). If pattern swings to the draw back, search for assist on the 50-day EMA (at the moment at 20966).
RBOB Gasoline Future Each day Chart
Gasoline futures have been a 65-cent buying and selling vary since September, buying and selling between 2.25 and a couple of.90, with worth at the moment midway between these borders at 2.57. Whereas MACD appeared prepared to point a pattern change to bullish, the final two buying and selling days of final week saved the indicator bearish. RSI is respecting the worth motion, trending downward to 43 (not fairly oversold but). An unconventional head and shoulders has appeared, so ought to a break of the neckline happen, the measured transfer (from the highest of the pinnacle to the neckline, utilized to the purpose on the neckline the place the draw back break happens) signifies a potential goal of two.15. Count on resistance at 2.90 ought to the pattern flip bullish.
Financial Stories for the week of February twentieth – February twenty fourth
Thursday February twenty third is a crucial financial report day as each jobless claims and GDP can be launched at 8:30am ET. That is the second (revised estimate) launch for This autumn 2022 GDP, with the Advance quantity at 2.9%. Watch to see if this primary revision will increase or decreases, as a pattern might affect Fed coverage for setting the Fed Funds fee. The U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) performs double responsibility on Thursday morning, releasing each the Pure Gasoline report and the Petroleum Standing report. Housing market-related stories releasing this week embrace Current House Gross sales (Tuesday), MBA Mortgage Purposes (Wednesday), and New House Gross sales (Friday).
Talking engagements by Federal Reserve presidents embrace NY Fed president John Williams (Wednesday), Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic (Thursday) and Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester. Be aware that this may increasingly not embrace all Federal Reserve appearances subsequent week, and that market volatility can improve when these audio system touch upon the financial system and Fed coverage.
Moreover, Monday is a financial institution vacation in the US; examine the exchanges for potential shortened buying and selling hours.
*** Market Shifting Indicators* Advantage Additional Consideration
Date
Financial Stories
Monday, February twentieth
No stories as a result of Presidents Day Vacation
Tuesday, February twenty first
10:00 AM ET: Current House Sales11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections @usda
Wednesday, February twenty second
7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications10:00 AM ET: State Avenue Investor Confidence Index2:00 PM ET: FOMC Minutes5:30 PM ET: New York Federal Reserve Financial institution President John Williams Speech
Thursday, February twenty third
8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims***8:30 AM ET: GDP***8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed Nationwide Exercise Index10:30 AM ET: EIA Pure Gasoline Report*10:50 AM ET: Atlanta Federal Reserve Financial institution President Raphael Bostic Speech11:00 AM ET: Kansas Metropolis Fed Manufacturing Index11:00 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Standing Report***4:30 PM ET: Fed Steadiness Sheet
Friday, February twenty fourth
8:30 AM ET: Export Sales8:30 AM ET: Private Revenue and Outlays*10:00 AM ET: New House Sales10:00 AM ET: Shopper Sentiment10:15 AM ET: Cleveland Federal Reserve Financial institution President Loretta Mester Speech1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count3:00 PM ET: Cattle On Feed3:00 PM ET: Chilly Storage
Corporations Reporting Earnings for the week of February twentieth – February twenty fourth
Retail corporations take middle stage this week, led by Walmart (in each the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices) on Tuesday morning. Baidu, eBay, Ali Baba and Wayfair reporting midweek signify e-commerce – watch these outcomes for perception into how customers are spending on retail gadgets.
House Depot represents the opposite Dow Jones firm reporting this week, additionally on Tuesday morning—concentrate on potential volatility in Dow Jones futures each when the earnings stories are launched and at common market open (9:30am ET). Business actual property is represented by CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield on Thursday. Canadian banks incomes season begins with CIBC on Friday earlier than market open.
BMO = Earlier than Market OpenAMC = After Market Shut
* signifies that this firm is within the S&P 500 Index
Date
Earnings Stories
Monday, February twentieth
No stories as a result of Presidents Day Vacation
Tuesday, February twenty first
House Depot (HD): $3.25 EPS Estimate, $35.97B Income Estimate (BMO)*Molson Coors Brewing Firm. (TAP): $1.06 EPS Estimate, $2.67B Income Estimate (BMO)*Walmart (WMT): $1.52 EPS Estimate, $159.08B Income Estimate (BMO)*Caesar’s Leisure (CZR): ($0.18) EPS Estimate, $2.82B Income Estimate (AMC)Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL): $1.37 EPS Estimate, $1.74B Income Estimate (AMC)
Wednesday, February twenty second
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU): $1.61 EPS Estimate, $4.64B Income Estimate (BMO)eBay, Inc. (EBAY): $1.06 EPS Estimate, $2.46B Income Estimate (AMC)*NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): ($3.04) EPS Estimate, $3.05B Income Estimate (AMC)*Rio Tinto plc (RIO): –.– EPS Estimate, $44.84B Income Estimate (AMC)
Thursday, February twenty third
Ali Baba Group Holdings (BABA): $2.28 EPS Estimate, $35.48B Income Estimate (BMO)CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE): $1.19 EPS Estimate, $8.46B Income Estimate (BMO)*Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): $4.66 EPS Estimate, $5.09B Income Estimate (BMO)*Wayfair, Inc. (W): ($3.04) EPS Estimate, $3.05B Income Estimate (BMO)Carvana Co. (CVNA): $0.08 EPS Estimate, $11.03B Income Estimate (AMC)Cushman & Wakefield (CWK): $0.46 EPS Estimate, $2.44B Income Estimate (AMC)Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): $0.08 EPS Estimate, $11.03B Income Estimate (AMC)*
Friday, February twenty fourth
Canadian Imperial Financial institution of Commerce (CM): $1.22 EPS Estimate, $16.73B Income Estimate (BMO)
Remember to examine again weekly and observe us on our social media accounts to obtain alerts of our Futures Outlooks week to week.
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